Climate Change, Migration, and National Security in Pakistan: Assessing The Emerging Nexus and Its Policy Implications

Abstract

Climate change is increasingly affecting Pakistan’s livelihoods, human mobility, economic stability, and national security. This study examines the relationship between climate change, migration, and national security in Pakistan, focusing on how climate hazards disrupt livelihoods, generate displacement, and create wider security pressures. Using qualitative analysis of secondary data from government institutions, international organizations, policy documents, and academic literature, the study finds that climate change acts primarily as a threat multiplier, intensifying existing vulnerabilities such as poverty, weak infrastructure, water and food insecurity, and institutional limitations. Migration and displacement emerge as the principal mechanisms connecting climate-related disruption with human-security and broader national-security challenges. The 2022 floods, which affected approximately 33 million people and displaced nearly 8 million, demonstrate how climate hazards can generate interconnected humanitarian, economic, livelihood, and governance crises. The study further finds that climate-induced migration can increase pressure on housing, employment, water, public services, and urban infrastructure, although migration can also serve as an adaptation strategy when adequately managed. While Pakistan has developed important climate, adaptation, disaster-management, and security policies, gaps remain in coordination, financing, implementation, data, and institutional capacity. The study concludes that Pakistan requires an integrated climate–mobility–security framework linking climate adaptation, livelihood protection, planned mobility, urban resilience, and national-security planning.