Strategic Hedging and Balance of Power: Pakistan’s Foreign Policy under Saudi Iranian Rivalry and Strait of Hormuz Geopolitics (2016–2026)

Syed Shuja Uddin; Muneeb Aurangzeb; Shahnawaz Muhammad Khan

doi:10.71317/jgst.2.10.2026.827

Authors

Dr. Syed Shuja Uddin Assistant Professor, Department of International Relations, Federal Urdu University of Arts, Sciences & Technology, Karachi ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0008-8359-9915 Author
Muneeb Aurangzeb M.Phil. Research Scholar, Department of International Relations, Federal Urdu University of Arts, Sciences & Technology, Karachi ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0003-0580-3574 Author
Dr. Shahnawaz Muhammad Khan Associate Professor, Department of Sciences & Humanities, FAST-National University of Computer & Emerging Sciences, Karachi Campus ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0007-7874-8990 Author

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.71317/jgst.2.10.2026.827

Keywords:

Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Iran, national security, 'hedging’ and ‘Strait of Hormuz’.

Abstract

Pakistan has two potential rivals which are quite aggressive, its biggest financial partner and its most vulnerable land border neighbour. The Saudi-Iranian rivalry has been primarily seen as a sectarian and diplomatic issue in Islamabad for the most part. It is reviewed in light of evidence till & after October 2026, Saudi-Pakistan Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (17thSeptember, 2025), US-Israeli invasion of Iran that started on 28th Feb of 2026 and closure & reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Pakistan's role as host & mediator in the US-Iran talks in Islamabad & Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding. After adopting the neoclassical realism approach and using the alliance-entrapment/abandonment approach, and following the process-tracing method, descriptive analysis of the official data and think tank data, transparent scenario simulation and judgement based exposure matrix, what are the channels through which this rivalry poses a threat to the supreme national interest of Pakistan? Three findings emerge. The economic channel is large and measurable: Saudi Arabia is the channel for a massive US$9.78 billion (or 23.5%) of the record US$41.6 billion in remittances in FY2025-26, and most of the crude oil imports into Pakistan go through Hormuz; the median value of the trade deficit is around US$4.9 billion per year, with US$8.6 billion at the 95th percentile. Secondly, the internal violence has been confined to the borders of Afghanistan and Balochistan, in which Pakistan's military bandwidth has been kept low to tackle any threat from the Iranian border. Third, sectarian channel is the lowest exposure in our exposure matrix while alliance entrapment is the highest. We believe that Pakistan's supreme interest can be best served by codifying and advancing Pakistan's Saudi commitment, institutionalizing Pakistan's mediation and building energy and remittance resilience.