Hydrological Extremes and Groundwater Sustainability Under Climate Variability and Anthropogenic Water Stress: A Systematic Review and Conceptual Framework

Abstract

Sustainability Groundwater in Lower Indus Basin aspiring to ⁠becomes more difficult to achieve from Climate Variability and Water Stress induced by human activities in Pakistan. This systematic study summarizes empirical science from hydrogeology, hydrogeochemistry, climatology, and agricultural engineering to assess how climatic extremes, unregulated groundwater extraction, and infrastructure breakdowns may have stressed groundwater in District Shaheed Benazirabad(SB) in the Province of Sindh in Pakistan. A onfined to non-confined district along the left bank of the Indus River is characterized by a hyper-arid to semi-arid climate, low relief (12.5 cm/km slope), and a shallow unconfined alluvial aquifer that is recharged predominantly through seepage from unlined canals. Hydroclimatic trend analysis has suggested increasing extremes, with the 2022 monsoon flood being 726% of normal rainfall in August, causing rapid water table rise and extended water logging. At the same time, the surface water shortage of 10–12% forces farmers to pump 4.3 to 6.0 BCM of groundwater a year, resulting in saline water upconing and quality decline. According to hydro-geochemical analysis, 55–80% of the groundwater samples tested do not meet World Health Organization (WHO) and Pakistan Standards and Quality Control Authority (PSQCA) drinking water guidelines for TDS (up to 6,050 mg/L), arsenic (up to 70 µg/L), and fecal coliform contamination 25 %. The “double threat” of waterlogging and secondary salinization impacts more than 60% of cultivated land, cutting cotton yields by as much as 50%. A six-pillar conceptual framework is introduced, including irrigation conveyance modernization, managed aquifer recharge, drainage re-engineering, solarized scavenger tubewells, decentralized water treatment, and institutional governance. Such an approach provides a replicable model for climate-adaptive aquifer management for at-risk alluvial basins in the Global South.