CPEC and Pakistan’s Strategic Autonomy in a Multipolar Order: Between Bilateral Dependence and Foreign Policy Diversification

Abstract

Since 2015, CPEC has added a new economic dimension to Pakistan-China relations. The role of infrastructure projects, energy collaboration, connectivity, investments, and institution-building through coordination between the two states has brought Pakistan closer to China while also bringing the issue of economic imbalances and strategic autonomy into question. This paper tries to find out how CPEC has affected the freedom of choice of Pakistan in its foreign policy or how Islamabad has maintained flexibility by broadening its external connections. With the use of a qualitative case study methodology along with descriptive economic data, the research examines the bilateral agreements of Pakistan and China, documents related to the planning process of CPEC, Pakistan’s National Security Policy, Pakistan’s economic and trade relations, data related to debt, documents published by the IMF and the World Bank, and scholarly works about strategic autonomy and hedging over the period of 2015-2026. The analysis reveals considerable imbalance in Pakistan’s economic and diplomatic ties with China but cannot confirm the notion of exclusive China-oriented dependency. At the same time, Pakistan has significant economic and diplomatic ties with the USA, European Union countries, the Gulf countries, and international financial institutions. In this regard, the author proposes the concept of constrained diversification as the maintenance of many external partnerships in spite of ongoing structural dependency and the low level of domestic economic capability.