Impact of Climate Change on Citrus Production in Pakistan: Challenges, Economic Implications and Adaptation Strategies

Abstract

The production of citrus fruits is one of the key elements of the agricultural economy of Pakistan, playing an important role in economic growth, job creation, and foreign exchange income. Pakistan is considered one of the largest citrus producers in the world, and kinnow mandarin is one of the main citrus fruits that it exports. But the adverse impact of climate change on citrus plantations in key areas of their cultivation has become more evident. Higher temperatures, precipitation fluctuations, lack of water supply, smog pollution, and increased cases of pests have had a negative impact on citrus crop yield, quality, and marketability. The current research focuses on the influence of climate change on the productivity of citrus fruits through analysis of primary data collected from 150 citrus producers in Punjab, Pakistan. A questionnaire survey was used for assessment of the respondents' views about the effect of climate change, their coping strategies, and yield. It has been found that the increase in temperature, changes in rainfall pattern, and scarcity of irrigation water reduce the productivity of citrus farming along with the quality of the fruits. From the regression analysis results, it is found that temperature variability negatively impacts the yield the most (β=-0.41; p<0.01); the second one is water scarcity (β= -0.36; p<0.01); the third one is changes in rainfall pattern (β=-0.29; p<0.05), and the use of climate smart practices – proper irrigation schedule, mulching and pest management – positively affect the productivity (β=0.44; p<0.01). The proposed model explains about 61.9% of the variance in productivity of citrus, which shows the important role of climate change in this regard. All the four hypotheses have been validated. It has been concluded from the study that building adaptive capacity of the farmers, using climate resilient technologies and efficient water management policies will be needed to sustain the citrus industry of Pakistan in future.