ASEAN and the South China Sea Dispute: Challenges, Strategies, and Prospects for Regional Stability

Abstract

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is leading multilateral efforts to curb tensions, avert conflict and establish a rules-based maritime order in the Asia Pacific region. The South China Sea issue remains one of the longest and impracticable security issues in Asia today. The article thoroughly analyzes ASEAN's role in dispute management since the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties (DOC), the internal and external challenges to its effectiveness, and the potential future of ASEAN's existing approaches, especially on multilateral diplomacy and the Code of Conduct (COC) negotiations. The analysis finds that despite ASEAN's impressive resilience in sustaining the "centrality" of its institutional role in regional security architecture, the "centrality" of ASEAN itself is still under significant constraints because of the principle of non-interference and the increasing pressure of great power competition between the United States and China. The article recognises that reasonable expectations should be tempered by the fact of the limitations of ASEAN institutions in any evaluation of its future effectiveness, but also accepts that ASEAN's future effectiveness is highly dependent on the ability to remain united internally, to finalise a binding COC consistent with international law and the decision of the Permanent Court of Arbitration last year, and to resist pressure to come into line with either of the two great powers.