The Shifting Strategic Dimensions of the Persian Gulf Region: From Abraham Accords to the US-Israel War on Iran

Abstract

The Abraham Accords Declaration, signed on August 13, 2020, stands out as a significant advancement in regional diplomacy amid the geopolitical changes and regional dynamics of the Middle East. The Arab Gulf states witnessed remarkable thaw in diplomatic proceedings with Israel during 2020 to 2023. However, the process of Arab-Israel reconciliation was again halted due to the Saudi Arabia-Iran rapprochement the Gaza War in 2023 and the U.S-Israel war on Iran in 2025 and 2026. Investigating the fundamental reasons behind these regional security dynamics, this study argues that, for the Arab Gulf states, normalizing relations with Israel had become a strategic cause in and of itself, separate from the conventional emphasis on the Palestinian cause. But, the rapprochement between two regional heavyweights Saudi Arabia and Iran, the Gaza War and Iran’s unwavering attacks on energy and military facilities of the Gulf states in the aftermath of the U.S-Israel war on Iran have questioned relevance of the Abraham Accords in contemporary regional security dynamics. By applying regional security complex theory with mixed method research approach the study argues that from Abraham Accords to the Gaza War and the U.S-Israel war on Iran 2026, anarchy has intensified, regional polarity has disturbed and the patterns of amity and enmity have been transforming in the Persian Gulf sub-complex of the Middle East since the signing of the Abraham Accords.