The US–China Trade Conflict: From Economic Engagement to Geoeconomic Rivalry: A Theoretical and Historical Analysis

Abstract

This paper offers a theoretical and historical perspective on the US–China trade war, suggesting that it has transformed from a typical trade war to a multidimensional geoeconomic and technological struggle. Based on the concepts of Hegemonic Stability Theory, Offensive Mercantilism and the perspective of Global Value Chains (GVCs), the study outlines how the emergence of China has threatened the liberal order led by the United States since the end of the Cold War, has opened the door to protectionism, strategic competition and the use of trade and technology as weapons. The historical analysis explains how the relationship between the US and China has changed from one of economic engagement (1990s–2017) to one of strategic competition, focusing on the process of China's accession to the WTO, the continuing trade imbalance, IP rights issues, and the “Made in China 2025” industrial plan. The article also covers the detail of the tariff and regulatory measures from 2018 to 2026, including the Phase One Agreement (2020), the “small yard, high fence” policy of the Biden administration (2021–2026), the renewed escalation during Trump's second term (2025), and the fragile Busan Accord (2025–2026). The results show this war to be a systemic change of paradigm from liberal interdependence to managed competition, with important consequences for global governance, supply chains and developing economies.